Alphaville: 1980s Credit Crisis Was Dress Rehearsal for 2000s.

Will people read across to the present day? Nah… this time it’s different.

They take advantage of differences in the timing of bank deregulation across US states in the 1980s — specifically, limits on both inter-state and intra-state branches — to measure the importance of “credit supply shocks” for employment, consumer spending, house prices, indebtedness, and inflation. States more willing to let banks from other states enter their market, such as New York, had bigger booms in the 1980s and bigger busts subsequently when compared to places less open to financial-sector competition, such as Illinois.

These booms took the form of greater household borrowing, significantly faster inflation, and a big uptick in the size of the notoriously unproductive construction sector. Rather than encouraging worthwhile investments, easier lending standards only exacerbated the amplitude of the cycle:

via Anyone awake in the 1980s should have known about the dangers in the 2000s | FT Alphaville

Advertisements

This is Worse than Before the Last Three Crashes | Wolf Street

How long will “magical thinking” sustain the rally? No way to say. But when the gears are reversed, it could get ugly…. From Wolf Street:

“There are a million reasons why multiple compression hasn’t started yet, including the scorched-earth monetary policies by central banks around the world and the hope for miracles during the Trump administration.”

via This is Worse than Before the Last Three Crashes | Wolf Street